Sea Level Rise: Shoreline Habitat & Infrastructure Adaptation Strategies

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Coastal communities, and especially those entirely surrounded by water such as San Juan County, are intimately familiar with coastal hazards such as waves, flooding, and erosion, among others. As the global climate continues to warm, causing sea-levels to rise, many of these hazards will be exacerbated, becoming both more frequent and more intense. Identifying, preparing for, and adapting to the threats posed by sea-level rise will be one of the defining challenges of the century.

Future sea-level rise is expected to accelerate and create a rise in ocean water levels that will continue for generations, shifting the water’s edge landward and exacerbate existing flooding. Higher sea levels will also increase erosion of beaches and bluffs and increase wave attack at the toe of coastal bluffs, resulting in narrower distances between assets and the water. Additionally, the combination of higher ocean water levels and erosion will mean that coastal storms will potentially cause greater flooding and damage, because a reduced beach width is less effective at reducing wave energy, and waves positioned at a higher elevation allow for a deeper reach landward.

San Juan County is taking steps to better understand and proactively address and mitigate for the future of sea level rise in the islands over the coming years and decades. Use this page to follow San Juan County’s research, projects, and policies related to sea level rise.

Coastal communities, and especially those entirely surrounded by water such as San Juan County, are intimately familiar with coastal hazards such as waves, flooding, and erosion, among others. As the global climate continues to warm, causing sea-levels to rise, many of these hazards will be exacerbated, becoming both more frequent and more intense. Identifying, preparing for, and adapting to the threats posed by sea-level rise will be one of the defining challenges of the century.

Future sea-level rise is expected to accelerate and create a rise in ocean water levels that will continue for generations, shifting the water’s edge landward and exacerbate existing flooding. Higher sea levels will also increase erosion of beaches and bluffs and increase wave attack at the toe of coastal bluffs, resulting in narrower distances between assets and the water. Additionally, the combination of higher ocean water levels and erosion will mean that coastal storms will potentially cause greater flooding and damage, because a reduced beach width is less effective at reducing wave energy, and waves positioned at a higher elevation allow for a deeper reach landward.

San Juan County is taking steps to better understand and proactively address and mitigate for the future of sea level rise in the islands over the coming years and decades. Use this page to follow San Juan County’s research, projects, and policies related to sea level rise.

  • How Do YOU Want to Plan for Sea Level Rise in San Juan County? Join Community Workshops this December

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    Save the date for your island’s case study to participate in a discussion about what should be done with county roads threatened by sea level rise

    SAN JUAN COUNTY, WA. October 29, 2025 — What happens to roads, homes, and the shoreline when the sea rises? San Juan County is kicking off the second round of community workshops dedicated to sea level rise, focusing on specific island roads and infrastructure that are at risk due to rising tides and eroding banks. These workshops will bring communities together for a deeper dive into island-specific case studies and discuss our options for responding to sea level rise.

    Areas of Focus

    While the first round of workshops reviewed the science of sea level rise, the second round of workshops will dive into island-specific case studies: False Bay Road at False Bay (San Juan Island), Deer Harbor Road at West Sound (Orcas Island), Port Stanley Road at Swifts Bay (Lopez Island), and Blind Bay Road at Blind Bay (Shaw Island). Each site was chosen for its representation of different scenarios that can be found throughout the county.

    This workshop will also be facilitated by a consultant specializing in community response to sea level rise.

    Workshop schedule:

    • Lopez Island: The Future of Port Stanley Road
      1. Tuesday, December 2nd; 5:00pm-7:00pm
      2. Lopez Island Grange, 452 Richardson Rd, Lopez Island
      3. Join remotely via this link
    • Shaw Island: The Future of Blind Bay Road
      1. Wednesday, December 3rd; 12:00pm-2:00pm
      2. Shaw Community Center, 42 Reef Net Bay Rd, Shaw Island
      3. Join remotely via this link
    • Orcas Island: The Future of West Sound’s Deer Harbor Road
      1. Wednesday, December 3rd; 5:30pm-7:30pm
      2. West Sound Community Hall, 525 Deer Harbor Rd,
      3. Join remotely via this link
    • San Juan Island: The Future of False Bay Road
      1. Thursday, December 4th; 5:30pm-7:30pm
      2. Marie Boe Building at the San Juan County Fairgrounds, 849 Argyle Ave, Friday Harbor
      3. Join remotely via this link

    We hope the community will engage in these critical workshops! You can attend in person or online, and recordings will be available afterward.

    Questions? Contact: Tyler Davis, Environmental Project Manager: tylerd@sanjuancountywa.gov

    About San Juan County’s Department of Environmental Stewardship

    San Juan County’s Department of Environmental Stewardship is responsible for solid waste, marine resources, clean water, cultural resources, and climate and sustainability work. The department offices are located at 1609 Beaverton Valley Rd, Friday Harbor, WA 98250. For more information about San Juan County’s Department of Environmental Stewardship, visit www.sanjuanco.com/839/Environmental-Stewardship.

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  • Protecting our Homes, Roads, and Habitat – Save The Date for Sea Level Rise Workshops this Fall

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    SAN JUAN COUNTY, WA. September 9, 2025 – San Juan County is taking steps to better understand and plan for the future of sea level rise in the islands, including mitigating the impact to public and private infrastructure. The County is planning a series of community workshops to share information about sea level rise and solicit thoughts, concerns, and feedback from community members about how to address these challenges together.

    Community Workshops

    Each of the four ferry-served islands will host two community workshops, facilitated by an external consultant specializing in community response to sea level rise.

    The first workshop will focus on the big picture, reviewing the science of sea level rise globally and locally. This science will include reviews of key studies done in San Juan County and how the County can expect to be affected in the next 20-50 years. The first workshop is scheduled as follows:

    The second workshop will dive into island-specific case studies that illustrate potential responses to sea level rise for both public assets (roads, beaches, shoreline access, cultural and ecological resources, etc.) and private assets (homes, septic, water systems, etc.). The case study sites include: False Bay Road at False Bay (San Juan Island), Deer Harbor Road at West Sound (Orcas Island), Port Stanley Road at Swifts Bay (Lopez Island), and Blind Bay Road at Blind Bay (Shaw Island). Each site was chosen for its different condition scenario, which are broadly representative of what can be found at similar sites identified on other Islands as well.

    The second workshops will be held during the last week of October – exact dates, locations, and times are to be announced.

    The County is hopeful for strong community engagement in these workshops, and encourages all those who are interested to attend in person, although virtual options are also available.

    Check back soon for more information about the workshops, including agendas and supplemental materials.

    Questions? Contact: Tyler Davis, Environmental Project Manager: tylerd@sanjuancountywa.gov

  • SJC Reviews Shoreline Habitat & Infrastructure Adaptation Strategies in the face of Sea Level Rise

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    SAN JUAN COUNTY, WA. September 24, 2024 – San Juan County is working to develop a County-wide approach to addressing sea level rise and managing impacts to nearshore infrastructure and habitat. This work will align with the forthcoming updates to the SJC Comprehensive Plan and revisions to the County’s Unified Development Code.

    During the September 17 Council meeting, staff from the Department of Environmental Stewardship presented findings and work on the following: 1) Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Risk Assessment; 2) a framework for approaching sea level-related projects, and 3) a StoryMap to be used in educating the community on the real and potential implications of sea level rise in the islands.

    Sea Level Rise in San Juan County

    The County worked with Environmental Science Associates (ESA) to publish a Sea-Level Rise Risk & Vulnerability Assessment for San Juan County, including county-wide sea level rise maps. You can access a summary of the report via an interactive StoryMap that guides readers through the science. The StoryMap includes sea level rise mapping, facts from the vulnerability assessment, a water level look-up table, and more.

    Developing a Framework

    The County is developing a framework to help guide future policy and projects related to sea level rise. This framework seeks to both gather and provide locally relevant information, engage and increase awareness among residents, and guide policy development for effective infrastructure and sensitive habitat management.

    Community Conversations

    The County plans to host community conversations with several neighborhoods to share case studies and discuss ways to manage the impacts of sea level rise in specific areas around the islands. Feedback from the community will help to inform potential policies and projects that will address community access and utility needs, as well as protections for the environment.

    The County expects to conduct community conversations in early 2025 and will reach out to property owners and neighborhoods directly with more information.

    Learn more about sea level rise in San Juan County at: https://engage.sanjuancountywa.gov/strategic-shoreline-adaptation

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  • Watch the Sea Level Rise Presentations to County Council

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    San Juan County is proactively working on climate adaptation methods to protect the health and safety of county residents, the environment, and infrastructure.

    October 10, 2023: Part of the County's research on the impacts of sea level rise was presented to Council on October 10. Watch the recording beginning at time stamp 3:30:17: County Council Regular Session Meeting • San Juan County, WA - Agendas & Minutes • CivicClerk.

    September 17, 2024: Staff from the Department of Environmental Stewardship presented findings from a Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Risk Assessment, a framework for approaching sea level-related projects, and a StoryMap to help educate the community on sea level rise in the islands during the September 17 Council meeting. Watch the presentation (starting at time stamp 1:15:33): County Council Regular Session Meeting • San Juan County, WA - Agendas & Minutes • CivicClerk.

    The Sea-level Rise Risk & Vulnerability Assessment for San Juan County includes county-wide sea-level rise maps. This report identifies coastal areas of the County that may be most vulnerable to climate change driven sea-level rise impacts, such as flooding and erosion. The analysis relies on wave and water level modeling and an erosion analysis for a range of sea-level rise projections in order to develop hazard zones that show the potential future extent of flooding and erosion in San Juan County. These hazard zones can be viewed in the report, as can the detailed methods used to select the sea-level rise scenarios and events and conduct the modeling.